an overlapping generations model ( olg ) are integrated in this cge model to describe the consumers " behaviors 本文在cge模型中整合了跨際迭代模型(overlappinggenerations),來描述消費者的行為。
on one hand, though there are lots of discussions on government debt in china nowadays, systemic studies on government debt issuance management are rather few . the paper makes a positive attempt in this aspect . on the other hand, some quantitative models applied in the paper, such as overlapping generation model on sustainable scale of government debt, linear regression model on current scale of government debt in china and game theoretical model on bond auction, contribute to clarification and efficiency of argumentation greatly 通過以上各方面的討論,本文主要體現(xiàn)出兩個方面的特點:一方面,盡管近年來學術界有關國債問題的專題研究已有不少,但是對發(fā)行管理進行的系統(tǒng)考察至今尚不多見,本文則在這方面進行了有益的嘗試;另一方面,在研究方法上,本文力求通過模型方式和計量手段的運用使有關結(jié)論有一個更為堅實的基礎,例如:在討論適度國債規(guī)模存在機制時運用的世代交疊模型、在實證分析我國國債規(guī)模時運用的多元回歸模型以及在研究國債招標制度時運用的博弈論模型等,都是這種努力的體現(xiàn)。
fourthly, under the structure of general equilibrium, it analyzes the speculative bubbles " impact on the economy with overlapping generation model which considers the technology advances and random real capital gain ratio . it not only introduces the achievements of foreign economists ( tirole, 1985, weil, 1987; blanchard and fisher, 1989 ); but also does the creative research on the movable economic efficiency during the transitional period 第四,在一般均衡框架下,采用具有技術進步和隨機實質(zhì)資本投資收益內(nèi)容提要率的跨時迭代模型研究投機泡沫對經(jīng)濟的影響,推廣了國外經(jīng)濟學家(五role,2955;weil,1957:blanch出妞助dfisher,1989)的研究成果。
macroeconomic mechanism that decides the existence of reasonable scale of government debt is demonstrated with overlapping generation model in this part . then, a linear regression model is developed to evaluate current scale of scale of government debt in china, and to forecast its possible tendency in following two years 在此問題上,本文既以理論的方法說明了適度國債規(guī)模的存在機制,又通過計量的方法對我國當前和未來兩年可能的國債規(guī)模進行了實證考察;其次是國債結(jié)構問題。
the chapter 9 establishes one two-overlapping generations model, analysis the macro-economic effect of the system transform . the chapter 10 uses one simple vertical equilibrium model, discusses the probability and process of gaining the equilibrium by extend the coverage without reform the current scheme . as the last chapter of the whole paper, chapter 11 summarizes the paper conclusions 其中:第九章建立了簡單的兩期疊代模型,分析了養(yǎng)老保險制度轉(zhuǎn)軌的宏觀經(jīng)濟影響,考察了制度轉(zhuǎn)軌的時機與條件;第十章建立了簡單的橫向均衡模型,探討了在制度內(nèi)實現(xiàn)均衡的現(xiàn)實性、可能性,并對引進新的參保對象實現(xiàn)制度的橫向均衡進行了數(shù)值模擬。